Can We Trust Our Estimates?
A simple look at joint probability, estimate accuracy, and what completed work tells us.
A personal collection of working explanations, experiments, and ideas. Everything here is a page; some pages are written in Markdown, and some begin as executable Marimo notebooks.
A simple look at joint probability, estimate accuracy, and what completed work tells us.
Deep modules, golden tests, and knowing when to hand off the keyboard.
Use telemetry to measure risk, not just state.
When tools change, the principles stay the same. LLMs don’t remove the need for strategic design.